Buffett Indicator Current Reading

Current Buffett Indicator: 324% — S&P 500: 7266.65 — US Total Market Cap: $96.3T — US GDP: $29.7T

The US stock market is currently extremely overvalued based on the Buffett Indicator.

Data updated hourly. Last update: 2026-05-01

Buffett Indicator — US Market Valuation

Real-time Total Market Cap / GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's favorite valuation metric.

Current Reading

324%

Extremely Overvalued

Dot-com or COVID-stimulus territory. Extreme caution.

0%75%100%140%180%250%+
$T
$T

Market cap estimated from S&P 500 via Yahoo Finance. GDP: BEA Q4 2025 annualized.

Historical Buffett Indicator

Year-end values from 1995 to present. Notice how extremes precede major market events.

1995
75%
2000
148%Dot-com Bubble
2002
73%Post-crash Low
2007
110%Pre-GFC Peak
2009
56%GFC Bottom
2015
117%
2018
122%
2020
185%COVID Stimulus
2021
210%All-Time High
2022
152%Rate Hike Selloff
2023
175%AI Rally
2024
195%
2025
200%

What Is the Buffett Indicator?

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market capitalization to US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Warren Buffett described it in a 2001 Fortune article as 'probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.'

The concept is simple: if the stock market grows much faster than the economy, stocks are likely overvalued. If the market lags behind economic output, stocks may be undervalued.

Buffett Indicator = (Total US Market Cap / GDP) x 100

While no single metric can predict market crashes, the Buffett Indicator has historically peaked before major downturns (2000, 2007) and troughed at major buying opportunities (2009).

Valuation Zones

< 75%

Significantly Undervalued — Historically rare buying opportunity

75% - 100%

Fair Value — Market roughly in line with GDP

100% - 140%

Modestly Overvalued — Above average, proceed with caution

> 180%

Extremely Overvalued — Dot-com or stimulus territory

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Risk Disclaimer

The Buffett Indicator is one of many valuation metrics and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Past indicator levels do not guarantee future market performance. All investments carry risk, including loss of principal. This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.